Three Upset Picks To Consider For NFL Week 10

Three Upset Picks To Consider For NFL Week 10 (2021)

We highlight three NFL Week 10 upset picks as potential value plays against the point spread or moneyline, based on various data angles.

November 10, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers will try to beat the Rams again (Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire)

Here are three NFL Week 10 upset picks that piqued our interest based on one or more data-driven angles.

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San Francisco 49ers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)

Point Spread: +4.0

Moneyline: +171

The Los Angeles Rams are the most popular spread pick this week, according to our pick’em pool data, with 81% of public entries selecting the Rams. San Francisco, though, is currently our highest value play against the spread this week.

The 49ers are coming off another disappointing performance last week against Arizona, in a game where they moved to the favorite role with Arizona QB Kyler Murray out. But San Francisco disappointing in the favorite role is nothing new, as they are 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS as a betting favorite since the start of last season. Meanwhile they are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS as an underdog, so yes, they have actually been better when considered an underdog recently.

That includes winning both games against the Rams as an underdog a year ago.

The 49ers have been maddening, but they also still have talent to compete with the top teams if they put it together, and that kind of variance is often your friend in an underdog spot.

New Orleans Saints (at Tennessee Titans)

Point Spread: +3.0

Moneyline: +125

The Tennessee Titans won Sunday Night’s game against the Rams, showing that they could do just fine without RB Derrick Henry. Or did they?

Tennessee won with just 194 total yards of offense, the lowest number of yards for any winning team so far this season. The game swung on two big defensive play turnovers, where the Titans scored 14 points within a short span in the second quarter.

There have been 12 other teams, prior to Week 9, that won a game this year while having less than 300 total yards of offense. Those teams went 2-10 SU and ATS the next week. Five of them were favorites, and they went 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS.

While the specific numbers may be fluky, that a team could be overvalued coming off a win where they relied on turnovers, special teams plays, or both, and had little offensive success, makes some sense.

Add in that the Saints are 1st in opponent rushing yards per carry (3.2) and that the Titans’ power running game is without its key player.

Our ensemble forecast model sees value on New Orleans against the spread, and at least based on our pick’em public data, the public is heavily on the Titans in this one, with 75% picking them against the spread.

Detroit Lions (at Pittsburgh Steelers)

Point Spread: +9.0

Moneyline: +315

Finally, we will close with a longer shot in the 0-8 Detroit Lions. When we last saw the Lions, before the Week 9 bye, they were getting crushed by the Eagles 44-6.

However, there are a few reasons to think Detroit can provide some value here, especially against the spread (whether or not you want to go with a full wager on the money line).

One is that the team has been decimated by key injuries this year, but they finally look like they will get a small piece of good news coming off a bye week, as left tackle Taylor Decker is expected to return this week, playing for the first time this season.

Two, say what you want about Detroit and their limited and injured roster, but head coach Dan Campbell has at least been willing to take chances to help his underdog side compete. Two games ago against the Rams, they utilized multiple fake punts and a surprise onsides kick to stay in the game, and it almost worked. If you are backing a larger underdog, having a coach that is willing to take chances to improve the odds of an upset is a plus.

Third, Detroit has also been more competitive in games where they have been the biggest underdog, as they are 4-1 ATS when a dog of at least a touchdown. That includes losing on the longest field goal in NFL history to the Ravens, losing on a last-second field goal against the Vikings, and pushing the Rams to the end.

Finally, Pittsburgh’s offense is suspect for a team laying nine points. They were unable to put away the Bears on Monday Night, letting Chicago claw into a late lead before winning. Pittsburgh has now failed to cover their last eight games as a favorite going back to last season. The Steelers are 25th in total yards on offense, and have been outgained on the season this year.

Roughly 64% of the underdogs in our Similar Games model covered the spread, and our Decision Tree and Ensemble Forecast models also show value on Detroit against the nine-point spread.

Year-To-Date Results

Through seven weeks of picks, our highlighted upset picks are 9-12 straight up and 10-11 against the spread, and we are +4.7 units against the moneyline at time of publication.

Last week, the Giants won outright, while the Bears were in a tight one against the Steelers until the end and covered the spread. The Texans lost by eight points to the Dolphins.

Just as importantly from a predictive standpoint, as close game luck can decide individual outcomes, based on the moneyline at the time of publication, we’ve gotten closing line value on 62% of our upset picks.

WEEK	PICK	WED ML	CLOSING ML	LINE VALUE	RESULT
9	NYG	125	130	No	Won 23-16
9	HOU	240	175	Yes	Lost 17-9
9	CHI	225	258	No	Lost 29-27
8	CAR	140	117	Yes	Won 19-13
8	JAC	143	167	No	Lost 31-7
8	NO	205	165	Yes	Won 36-27
7	PHI	135	-105	Yes	Lost 33-22
7	CIN	235	230	Yes	Won 41-17
7	WAS	323	335	No	Lost 24-10
6	JAC	157	115	Yes	Won 23-20
6	NE	165	165	No	Lost 35-29 (OT)
6	DET	155	170	No	Lost 34-11
5	PHI	157	121	Yes	Won 21-18
5	NYJ	145	122	Yes	Lost 27-20
5	SF	203	200	Yes	Lost 17-10
4	SEA	130	123	Yes	Won 28-21
4	PIT	251	210	Yes	Lost 27-17
4	NYJ	273	211	Yes	Won 27-24 (OT)
3	CIN	165	125	Yes	Won 24-10
3	PHI	165	165	No	Lost 41-21
3	JAC	290	308	No	Lost 31-19

Upset Pick Expectations

It’s important to understand the implications of betting on underdogs.

If you bet an underdog against the spread, you’re hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number. To profit long-term, you need to win more than half of these bets (specifically, 52.4% of them at the typical -110 payout odds).

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. In that context, you should expect to lose significantly more bets than you win.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of 100 moneyline bets on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather potentially long losing streaks along the way, and you need to be especially careful about judging your handicapping process based on short-term results.

Week 10 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to research your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our Custom Trends Tool.

To see all our model-based picks for NFL Week 10 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

Related: NFL Week 9 Betting Recap