Three NFL Week 14 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 14 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 14 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

December 6, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

The Bears get another chance at the Lions, this time outdoors in December (Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)

Successfully predicting an upset in an NFL Week 14 matchup, unnoticed by the general public, extends beyond mere boasting rights. Historically, underdogs can present more lucrative opportunities for betting value than favorites.

In this piece, we present our top three Week 14 upset picks, focusing on moneyline odds—the potential payout when betting on the underdog to secure an outright victory.

While some of these upset selections may closely resemble coin-flip scenarios, others might be considered long shots, with an expectation of far more losses than wins (refer to the conclusion section for pertinent notes on expectations).

The common thread among these picks is our conviction that they represent sensible wagers when considering the balance between risk and reward, and will prove to be profitable over the long term.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 1-2 for +0.2 units2023 Season: 13-26 for -4.6 units

Favorites went 10-3 SU in Week 13, and the only upsets that did happen were from the biggest dogs. Underdogs with moneylines under +200 went a combined 0-8.

We hit one of the bigger upsets, providing for a slightly positive week despite continuing to chug along with one upset out of three picks. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

Philadelphia (+125) grabbed an early lead, but San Francisco dominated the rest of the game, winning 42-19.Carolina (+200) briefly grabbed a second half lead at Tampa Bay, but immediately gave it back with a 75-yard TD pass to Mike Evans on the next play, and lost 21-18.Arizona (+220) won 24-10 at Pittsburgh, in a game that saw some weather delays and Steelers QB Kenny Pickett leaving with an injury.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 14, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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Week 14 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit Lions)

Moneyline: +150Point Spread: +3

This is our highest-rated playable moneyline underdog pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The Bears should have won at Detroit in their first meeting three weeks ago, but blew a 12-point lead in the final three minutes. That feels like forever ago, as Chicago has only played one game since, beating Minnesota and then having their bye week.

Detroit’s defense has been struggling recently, as each of the last four opponents have scored 26 or more points. They gave up a season-high 183 rushing yards in that first meeting with Chicago, but have also given up over 100 yards in each of the last two games as well.

LA Rams (at Baltimore Ravens)

Moneyline: +270Point Spread: +7

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

The Rams are a big underdog at Baltimore, but look like a team on the rise now that QB Matthew Stafford is healthy. They’ve won three straight after a mid-season slump, and have won the last two games by a combined 40 points, covering both comfortably.

With RB Kyren Williams returning from IR, the team has also rushed for 348 combined yards the last two weeks.

Denver Broncos (at LA Chargers)

Moneyline: +125Point Spread: +3

This is not a playable moneyline model pick, but is a pick based on recent offensive form and predictive ratings fade.

The Chargers haven’t been very good on offense recently. Since WR Mike Williams suffered a season-ending injury, the team is averaging 17 first downs a game, something that has only gotten worse without WR Josh Palmer as well. First round pick Quentin Johnston has also been a huge disappointment.

Yes, the Chargers won last week, but did so with 6 total points and a season-low 13 first downs on offense. For the year, the Chargers are 29th in yards allowed and 15th in yards gained, but the two best offensive games by yards came during the first three weeks of the season.

Denver, meanwhile, is going the opposite way, having poor defensive numbers early, but being competitive since that start to climb back to 6-6. They are coming off a loss where they went -3 in turnovers at Houston, but could have value as a dog in this AFC West tilt.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Upset Picks To Date

So far this year, Closing Line Value hasn’t mattered at all. We actually have a worse record (-3.4 units in 22 games with CLV) than in games where the closing line was similar or worse than our Wednesday pick line (-0.8 units in 17 games without CLV).

We also have not had good luck in close games, going only 9-17 straight up in games decided by one score.

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes
7	ATL	TB	120	132	W 16-13	No
7	DEN	GB	105	-110	W 19-17	Yes
7	ARI	SEA	298	340	L 20-10	No
8	CAR	HOU	139	154	W 15-13	No
8	DEN	KC	280	265	W 24-9	Yes
8	CLE	SEA	160	175	L 24-20	No
9	TB	HOU	130	130	L 39-37	No
9	ARI	CLE	296	575	L 27-0	No
9	TEN	PIT	130	150	L 20-16	No
10	GB	PIT	151	147	L 23-19	Yes
10	DEN	BUF	306	305	W 24-22	No
10	WAS	SEA	296	220	L 29-26	Yes
11	ARI	HOU	185	200	L 21-16	No
11	PHI	KC	125	129	W 21-17	No
11	PIT	CLE	-105	117	L 13-10	No
12	HOU	JAC	105	100	L 24-21	Yes
12	LAC	BAL	155	145	L 20-10	Yes
12	CHI	MIN	158	140	W 12-10	Yes
13	PHI	SF	125	134	L 42-19	No
13	CAR	TB	200	167	L 21-18	Yes
13	ARI	PIT	220	235	W 24-10	No

NFL Week 14 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 14 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 14 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

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