Updated Betting Line for Michigan vs Washington CFP National Championship Game

Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh talks to quarterback J.J. McCarthy before the start of the Rose Bowl vs. Alabama in Pasadena, California, on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024.See the updated betting line for Michigan vs Washington on Monday nightSharp money has caused a shift in the odds and spread for the National ChampionshipBelow, learn what the updated line can tell us about the betting market for Michigan vs Washington

The betting line for Michigan vs Washington in the National Championship has shifted in the hours leading up to kickoff in Houston. Sharp money has come in on both the spread and the game total, causing sportsbooks to adjust their lines.

What are the updated odds and spread for Michigan vs Washington, and what do they mean? We break it down below.

Michigan vs Washington Odds

In the updated CFP National Championship odds for Monday, the Michigan Wolverines are the favorite with -225 moneyline odds and -5.5 against the spread. Jim Harbaugh’s team now has 69% implied probability to win the game.

Kickoff for the CFP National Championship is 7:30 PM ET at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. ESPN will carry the broadcast.

Odds as of January 8th, 2024 at ESPN Bet. Make sure to sign up at ESPN Sportsbook for the National Championship. Use promo code DIME to unlock a $150 bonus!

Sharp Money Backing Michigan

It’s now clear which side the professional bettors are taking in Monday’s CFP Championship game. While the public is on Washington in the college football public betting trends, the line has actually shifted towards the Wolverines.

Sharp money has come in on Michigan, causing the line to lengthen from -4.5 to -5.5. This doesn’t come as a surprise to us, as the initial look-ahead line at FanDuel before the semi-final was Michigan by just over a touchdown. Sportsbooks likely adjusted the line based on public perception.

Look ahead lines for potential CFP Final. pic.twitter.com/ciNSk1PXnI

— Alex Gold (@AlexGold) January 2, 2024

The line movement towards Michigan contradicts an impressive trend for Washington. Since Kalen DeBoer took over as the Huskies’ head coach in 2022, Washington has gone 5-0 straight up and against the spread as betting underdogs.

We gave out Michigan -4.5 in our Michigan vs Washington prediction, primarily due to the Wolverines’ stifling defense. We ultimately think it will be the difference as the game wears on. We’re also forecasting a big night from Blake Corum in our MICH vs WASH props as UM aims to wear down the Huskies with their elite run game.

Washington’s defense ranks 54th in scoring and 97th in Total Defense this season. Since the start of the BCS, there has not been a team past 32nd in the country in total defense that has won a national championship, which is a telling stat. Michael Penix is good, but this is asking a lot against this fierce Wolverines secondary.

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Game Total Has Also Shifted

While the Michigan vs Washington spread has shifted towards the Wolverines, the game total has also been moving. After opening at 55.5, the total was immediately bet down to 54.5 before rising as high as 57 at some sportsbooks.

There were certainly some sharps waiting for the total to climb a few points, as they hammered the “under” Sunday and Monday, causing sportsbooks to drop it back down to 55.5. Pinnacle, one of the sharpest sportsbooks in the world, has this line at 55 now, so the “under” at places like ESPN Bet might offer some minor value.

Who wins this matchup?🍿 pic.twitter.com/uERHoH3TyU

— PFF College (@PFF_College) January 5, 2024

We do think this game goes under the total, even though Penix can sling it. Michigan hasn’t allowed over 271 yards to a single QB this season, and an injury to RB Dillon Johnson will enable Michigan to allocate more resources to defending the pass.

On the flip side, we expect Michigan to lean heavily on their run game Monday, which will run out the game clock. The Huskies were exploited on the ground by Texas in the Sugar Bowl, and the Wolverines are already running the ball on 60% of their plays this season.

 

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