Georgia vs Alabama Odds, Spread & Prediction – 2023 SEC Championship Game

Georgia coach Kirby Smart leads the team onto the field to warm up before the start of a NCAA college football game against Ole Miss in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023.The 2023 SEC Championship Game between #1 Georgia and #8 Alabama takes place this Saturday, Dec. 2, in Atlanta, GAGeorgia has never won back-to-back SEC title games in its 31-year historySee the Georgia vs Alabama odds, spread, and SEC title game picks

For the third time in the past six seasons, the #1 Georgia Bulldogs (12-0, 1-0 neutral, 4-7-1 ATS) will face the #8 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, 0-0 neutral, 8-4 ATS) in the SEC Championship Game. The 2023 edition will take place on Saturday, Dec. 2, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 pm ET on CBS.

Reigning-champion Georgia, which is also the back-to-back national champion, is a 5-point favorite to win a second straight SEC title game for the first time since the game’s inception in 1992.

Georgia vs Alabama Odds

The Georgia vs Alabama point spread has come down a half point after opening at 5.5 points last Sunday. The game total has also moved, climbing from 53.5 to 54. The updated college football public betting splits now show Alabama getting the majority of ATS handle after UGA was the early public favorite.

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Odds as of Nov. 29 on the BetMGM Sportsbook app. 

The Bulldogs (+205) are a close second-favorite to Michigan (+182) in the national championship odds. Despite sitting eighth in the CFP rankings – needing to jump four teams just to qualify – Alabama is the fourth-favorite in the title odds at +808 on average.

Georgia Finishes Strong After Sluggish Start to the Season

To the extent that an undefeated team can have a slow start, the 2023 Bulldogs did. Georgia began the year 0-4-1 against the spread before covering four of its final seven games. UGA absolutely demolished its final two SEC opponents of the season, routing Ole Miss 52-17 as 11-point home favorites before crushing Tennessee 38-10 as 8.5-point road chalk.

Though he wasn’t as prolific as Stetson Bennett in 2022, junior quarterback Carson Beck kept the Georgia passing game strong, averaging 291.3 yards per game with an excellent 72.4 completion percentage, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He actually finished the regular season with a higher QBR than Bennett did last year (168.2 vs 161.2), even though future first-round tight end Brock Bowers missed three games, including the season finale against Georgia Tech, which saw a seriously-depleted UGA team gut out a 31-23 win.

There is no suggestion Bowers is going to miss the SEC title game, though he is listed as questionable as he continues to recover from ankle surgery. Bowers led the team in receiving yards for the second straight season (661 yards on 51 receptions). Two other key pieces of Beck’s receiving corps are also questionable: Ladd McConkey (418 yards on 25 receptions) and Rara Thomas (383 yards on 23 receptions).

Meanwhile, Georgia’s defense is without Jamon Dumas-Johnson, who suffered a broken arm against Missouri in early November. Despite missing the final three games of the season, he remains tied for the team lead in sacks with 3.5.

Georgia’s offense finished the season sixth in yardage (498.5 yards per game), averaging 310.8 through the air and 185.6 on the ground (at 5.3 YPC). The defense wasn’t as dominant as its been in each of the last two title-winning seasons, allowing 15.8 PPG and 294.3 YPG. The Bulldogs allowed just 9.5 PPG and 253.9 YPG in 2021, and 12.3 PPG and 292.1 YPG in 2022.

2024 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker – Gabriel Jumps to Co-Favorite with BeckRead More

Alabama Survives Multiple Scares But Stays Perfect in SEC Play

After losing 34-24 at home to Texas in Week 2, Alabama went a perfect 10-0 but not without much difficulty. Three of Alabama’s wins were decided by six points or fewer (26-20 at Texas A&M, 24-21 vs Arkansas, and 27-24 at Auburn). Last week’s Iron Bowl victory was the most improbable of the bunch, as Bama converted a final-minute fourth-and-goal from the 31 to earn the three-point win.

Jalen Milroe went from being benched against USF to making one of the greatest and forever most memorable plays in Alabama history: pic.twitter.com/rU63kj8xwJ

— Sidelines – Bama (@SSN_Alabama) November 26, 2023

Alabama’s best games of the season included a 42-28 rout of LSU, and two-touchdown wins over Ole Miss (24-10) and Tennessee (34-20). All three came at home. Their run of four straight ATS victories (from Oct. 21 to Nov. 18) was brought to an end in the razor-thin Iron Bowl victory, which Alabama entered as a 13.5-point favorite.

While Alabama’s defense is filled with future NFL talent, they don’t have the same on offense, and it’s showed. Alabama only averaged 409.1 yards of offense per game (231.5 passing and 177.6 rushing), which was just 49th out 133 FBS teams. The Tide did manage to score 40 or more points five times, but were also held under 30 six times.

Concerningly for an already mediocre offense, starting RB Jase McClellan (803 rushing yards on 166 carries) finished the Auburn game on the sideline in a walking boot. His status for the SEC Championship is unclear, but he missed practice on Monday and Tuesday, which doesn’t bode well. Already thin in the backfield, Alabama can ill afford to subtract McClellan from the offense.

#Alabama running back Jase McClellan can be seen on crutches after its Iron Bowl win.https://t.co/YqrE9zm5Mv pic.twitter.com/DnUyRgA0Fm

— Jack Knowlton (@JackKnowlton_) November 26, 2023

Georgia vs Alabama Prediction

If Georgia is close to healthy, they are a significantly better team than Alabama, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They nearly doubled-up both Ole Miss (611 to 352) and Tennessee (472 to 277) in total yardage. Their narrow victories over Missouri (30-21) and Georgia Tech (31-23) both came without Bowers. While head coach Kirby Smart will never state so expressly, he likely held out several players from the Georgia Tech game so that they would be closer to 100% against Alabama.

With this game in Atlanta, as well, I will take UGA to cover the 5-point spread. Also check out out Georgia vs Alabama player props for some prop picks, including a play on Brock Bowers.

That said, Alabama’s defense is legit. Linebacker Dallas Turner and cornerbacks Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry are all first-round talents. They sit top 15 in points allowed (17.9) and top 20 in yards (312.7). With Georgia’s own offense likely to be a little less than full speed, expect the Tide defense to keep this game close, at least until halftime.

Alabama vs Georgia picks:

Georgia -5 (-110)First half under 27.5 points (-110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023 NCAAF betting record:

ATS: 4-8-1 (-4.36 units)ML: 6-2 (+5.46 units)O/U: 3-1 (+1.73 units)Player props: 0-1 (-1.00 units)Total: 13-12-1 (+1.83 units)

 

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