MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (7/21)

We have a full 15-game MLB slate today. Below are some players who could go long.

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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Trevor Larnach (+520) & Byron Buxton (+330)

Aaron Civale is making his third start for the Brewers after being acquired from the Rays.

Civale is a dependable veteran right-handed pitcher but has trouble with the long ball. In 19 starts this season, he has allowed 19 home runs, 11 to righties and eight to lefties.

The Twins have sneaky power. They have hit the eighth-most home runs (85), more than Houston, Atlanta and the Phillies. 

With Ryan Jeffers out of the lineup, Trevor Larnach is the leading man against opposing right-handed pitchers. Larnach is second on the team in homers (nine), trailing only Jeffers with an ISO of .183.

Byron Buxton has seen a lot of Civale in his career due to his time in Cleveland. While his average is nothing to brag about (.200), two of his three hits against Civale have been home runs. 

Since coming to the Brewers, Civale is 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 innings pitched, with three home runs allowed. 

Civale relies heavily on his cutter and curveball when facing opposing left-handed hitters. Civale uses his cutter 44% of the time, which is good news for Larnach, who has an ISO of .366 and an 11% barrel rate, both team highs.  

With Buxton being a righty, he will see more of a cutter and sinker mix from Civale. Again, this is good news for the Twins superstar, as he has an ISO over .290 on both of those pitches. 

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Ryan Mountcastle (+420), Adley Rutschman (+500) & Anthony Santander (+310)

No one needed the All-Star break as much as the Orioles. Heading into the break, Baltimore lost six of their last seven games, averaging 1.5 runs per game. In the first two games after the All-Star break, they scored 17 runs.

Andrew Heaney is on the mound for the Rangers in the series finale. The left-hander is 3-10 with a 3.79 ERA. In 18 starts, he has allowed 14 home runs, 13 of them coming off the bats of right-handed hitters. 

Santander has come out of the break scorching hot, hitting .462 with three home runs. His six home runs against lefties are second on the team, trailing Adley Rutschman by one.

Baltimore is one of the top teams against lefties. They have hit the third-most homers, have the second-highest ISO and have the highest slugging percentage in the league.

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Kurt Blakeway