Super Bowl 58 Odds – Public Backing Chiefs, But 49ers Now 2-Point Favorites

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) celebrates after winning the NFC Championship football game against the Detroit Lions at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY SportsThe San Francisco 49ers are 2-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl 58 oddsIn NFL public betting, it’s the underdog Chiefs getting the majority of both spread and moneyline actionUnderdogs are 3-0 against the spread in the past three Super Bowl games

The Super Bowl 58 odds have been moving steadily toward the underdog Kansas City Chiefs and away from the favored San Francisco 49ers since the opening odds on the game first dropped, which had conspiracy theorists nodding in agreement.

The tin foil hat types are espousing a theory that the entire 2023 NFL season is rigged for Kansas City to win the Super Bowl. The love affair between Kansas TE Travis Kelce and pop star Taylor Swift? It’s a sham, all part of a set up to get the Chiefs to the Super Bowl so that pro-Democrat Swift can stump for President Biden in front of the largest single-event TV audience in the USA.

No, we are not making that up. They are making that up, and there’s been a money wrench thrown into their theory. After falling to just a 1-point favorite, the 49ers have lengthened back to be the 2-point chalk to win the big game in the latest Super Bowl odds.

Current Super Bowl Odds

The 49ers are -130 moneyline favorites in the NFL odds, giving them a 56.52% implied win probability. The total is set at 47.5 points. Four of the last five Super Bowl games have gone under.

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Kickoff for the 2024 Super Bowl game at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday, February 11, is set for 6:30pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by CBS, as well as by DAZN in Canada.

Plenty of Super Bowl Line Movement Already

It’s only been five days since the Super Bowl 58 matchup was confirmed. In that short time frame, the betting line for the game has shifted three times.

The spread for this Chiefs vs 49ers matchup opened at San Francisco -2.5. However, it quickly shortened to 49ers -1.5. By Monday, Kansas City was only a 1-point underdog. Tuesday, though, it jumped back to 49ers -2.

Ready for a show in Vegas. #SBLVIII https://t.co/gxOWYyGWk3

— Super Bowl (@SuperBowl) January 29, 2024

In past Super Bowl games when the spread has been two points or shorter, the outcomes are split right down the middle. Favorites are 3-0, while underdogs have both covered and won outright three times.

Kansas City is 2-1 ATS as a Super Bowl underdog, and the Chiefs won outright in both of their successes. After losing the first Super Bowl game 35-10 to Green Bay as 14-point underdogs, the Chiefs came back to whip Minnesota 23-7 as 12-point underdogs in Super Bowl 4. Last year, KC rallied to beat Philadelphia 38-35 as 1.5-point underdogs.

As a betting favorite in the big game, San Francisco is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.

Public Betting Going to Kansas City

When it comes to NFL public betting on the big game, the people are in a Fats Domino frame of mind. They’re going to Kansas City.

preliminary lunar analysis certainly favors the chiefs.

the day of the super bowl is a waxing crescent moon & the chiefs are 19-1 in the last 5 yrs. under waxing crescent conditions.

by far their best moon phase pic.twitter.com/nBzVnJ204S

— Jay Cuda (@JayCuda) February 1, 2024

It’s the Chiefs getting 76% of handle and 83% of bets in the spread splits. Kansas City is also dominating the moneyline splits, generating 63% of handle and 66% of bets.

Underdogs have gone 3-0 ATS in the past three Super Bowls and 9-3 over the last 12 big games. AFC underdogs are on 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU runs.

Super Bowl 58 Prediction

Fading the public is a popular betting trend, but in this instance, the people just might know what they’re doing. Since the bright lights of postseason play began to shine, so have the Chiefs. They look like a completely different team to the one that was approaching the regular season seemingly with a level of indifference.

There used to be a theory that you don’t bet against Tom Brady in the playoffs. Since Brady is retired, the new theory must be don’t bet against KC QB Patrick Mahomes in the postseason. In fact, of his three playoff losses, two came against Brady.

It’s hard to imagine San Francisco QB Brock Purdy outdueling Mahomes on football’s biggest stage.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +2 (-110)

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